ReFantazio Could Help Persona 6 Overthrow Final Fantasy

What is the biggest JRPG in the world? For 20 years, maybe more, that has been a question with a very easy answer. It's Final Fantasy. There are JRPGs that have received critical acclaim, JRPGs that have sold by the barrel load, and JRPGs that have done both. It doesn't matter. Final Fantasy has been the undisputed king for a long time. But looking at the way Metaphor: ReFantazio was received by critics, and If it's sold by the barrel load, you're starting to think Final Fantasy needs to start looking over its shoulder.

Metaphor is the first game in an entirely new series, so I don't think Final Fantasy will give up its crown so easily. Final Fantasy has a legacy behind it, one that continues to be popular, one with nostalgic fans and a strong following in both Japan and the West. The metaphor of doing well doesn't sweep it away. But Metaphor is only the leadoff hitter. Developer Atlus has a strong contact hitter coming up to bat next in the form of Persona 6.

Persona has been around since 1996, but it wasn't until Persona 3 in 2006 that its popularity skyrocketed. Then, in 2016 (2017 in the West), it entered another stratosphere with Persona 5. Since then, word of mouth has continued to drive the stock up, going from strength to strength, and Royal and some of its affiliates have also received favorable reviews. Joker and the Phantom Thieves are particularly popular in Super Smash Bros. It has continued to establish itself as a modern gaming icon, including an appearance in Ultimate.

Purists don't always like comparisons to the Shin Megami Tensei line, which inevitably all return to Persona, but Atlus made great use of it during Metaphor's marketing. One of the reasons Metaphor sold so well is because JRPGs are popular, and Atlus gained respect and received incredible reviews (we weren't the only ones who gave it 5 stars). One of the reasons is that it is ‘like a persona’.

If a game 'like Persona' can sell that well (it sold 1 million units faster than any other Atlus game in just a few days), think about how well a 'Persona' game actually could sell. We don't know much about Persona 6 yet, but it's coming soon, and when it does, it could establish itself as the biggest new JRPG in the world.

Final Fantasy has a legendary legacy

What personas don't favor is what I call the 'grandmother test'. If you ask your grandma what Final Fantasy is, she'll know it's a video game. She doesn't prefer Aerith or Tifa, she doesn't care about blitzball, and she couldn't beat a dungeon in Final Fantasy XIV even with all the high potions in the world. But she understands that it's a video game and that kind of public perception is important.

Of course, this isn't the only way to measure how well-known a game is outside of the industry. If you're a fan of Persona and often wear the merchandise when you visit your grandma's house, or if you have a Persona tattoo that your grandma hates, she probably knows Persona. But neither your grandmother nor mine will buy the next Final Fantasy or Persona. This brings me to the real heart of the granny test.

Since it's an institution, there are a few games that grandma knows. Tomb Raider, Spyro, Sonic. Like Final Fantasy, it is a legendary game series that was popular in the 90s. But it is a cautionary tale. Tomb Raider is currently going through the longest drought of the series since Shadow of the Tomb Raider underperformed. Spyro's successful remastered trilogy didn't lead to a new game, and it was the first best-selling Spyro game in a generation. Sonic has spent some time in the wasteland, though he's been brought back from the brink by the film franchise and the out-of-the-box approach of Mania and Frontiers.

Final Fantasy 16 was quite successful. It sold well enough and was loved enough. But is it enough, well, is it enough? Final Fantasy's creators have been open about the disappointing numbers for the Final Fantasy 7 project, and in the Titanic year of gaming in 2023, FF16 is a slightly sinking ship, nowhere near the level of Zelda or Baldur's Gate. Final Fantasy and Persona are completely different series created by different studios, and although both are RPGs, they play out in different ways, with different audiences and different themes.

The success of Persona (and Metaphor) does not, and does not have to, come at the expense of Final Fantasy. Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, Tales, Mana, etc. weren't the only kids on the JRPG block. But that has always been the case, at least in the West. that JRPG is not just JRPG. Now that may not be the case. 16 has already taken a new direction with Game of Thrones -style Western fantasy influences (though Metaphor fares better), but it'll be interesting to see how Persona builds on Metaphor, and what that means for Final Fantasy. It will.