Gaza casualty figures in war’s early stage accurate: Study

LONDON: New research suggests that casualty figures released by the Gaza Health Ministry in the 17 days since Israel's offensive on the territory were accurate.

A British group said the Hamas-run government had estimated that 7,000 people had been killed in Israeli airstrikes in the first few weeks of the conflict.

He added that his own investigation, which evaluated 350 incidents, identified 3,000 casualties during that period, 75 percent of which were confirmed by the Defense Department, suggesting that authorities' reports are likely to be largely accurate.

Airwars, which independently verifies the impact of conflict on civilians, said it used the same methodology to assess conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and Libya.

The report added that more than 350 incidents had occurred during the period and that research into the conflict would continue, but it said statistics from the Gaza Strip had become less accurate as the war dragged on, and that widespread destruction across the territory was making it difficult for local authorities to carry out their duties.

Emily Tripp, the group's executive director, said the death toll was particularly high in the early stages of the conflict.

“We had more deaths per incident than any other campaign,” she told The New York Times. “The intensity was greater than anything we’ve ever recorded.”

Numerous other international organizations and experts have also said the department's data was initially accurate.

Mike Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway College, University of London, who reviewed Airwars' findings, told the Times that the group's figures “capture much of the basic reality” reported by Gaza authorities early in the war.

A study by researchers at Johns Hopkins University in the United States also found no evidence that the health department's data was significantly incorrect as of early November.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who analysed ID numbers from health department data collected throughout October, found no “obvious reason” to investigate.

But in December, Gaza authorities announced they would begin relying on “credible media sources” to obtain casualty figures and information from the field, citing the collapse of infrastructure in the area, including hospitals and morgues.

According to the ministry's latest figures, at least 39,000 people have been killed since Israel began its invasion in October.

Israel has frequently questioned the ministry’s figures, citing its proximity to Hamas. Israel’s Western allies have also expressed doubts, with U.S. President Joe Biden once saying he had “no confidence at all in the numbers the Palestinians are using.” U.S. officials have since said the data is more accurate than initially believed.

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