NEW YORK/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to suspend his re-election campaign and withdraw from the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic nominee, three Arab-American analysts said.
Biden, who announced on Sunday that he would support Harris’ withdrawal, has been lagging behind former President Donald Trump in opinion polls, and there has been a growing #AbandonBiden movement among Arab Americans and growing calls for him to drop out of the 2024 race after the dismal results of the June 27 debate in Atlanta.
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19 was supposed to be the day the 81-year-old Biden was crowned, but it has now shifted to an open contest in which the party's roughly 4,700 delegates will vote on a state-by-state basis to choose a candidate to challenge Republican nominee Trump.
Rana Aptar, a talk show host on Asharq News in Washington, D.C., said she expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, but that several other candidates could be considered. But she believes Democrats “need to show unity” to win in November.
“What we are seeing today is that the Democrats, one by one, are starting to support Harris,” she told Arab News. “There are delegates in some states who have already voted for Kamala Harris, which means their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“The remaining Democrats who have not yet supported Harris are expected to line up soon. At some point, we will see all or most Democrats supporting Harris. It is critical that the Democratic Party overcomes the dilemma facing the party and shows unity after President Biden announced that he will not run for a second term.”
With Biden out of the race, delegates from all 50 states and localities across the country can now support any candidate during the convention. A number of alternative candidates have been mentioned, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Abtar noted that Harris is popular with African-American voters, a traditional core of Democratic support, but said many still see her as part of the policies that fueled the Biden administration’s #AbandonBiden movement, which has seen Arabs and Muslims vote for “no commitment” or “no vote” options rather than the president in key swing state primaries.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Avtar said. “A lot of Democrats are worried that she has the same chance of running against Trump as Biden does against Trump. Of course, you’ll see Harris go out and talk to voters in the next few days, because as vice president in the past, she didn’t talk directly to the American people in many cases.
“Biden has put her in charge of immigration, which puts her in a very awkward position, especially since immigration and border security are two of the main areas where Republicans attack Democrats.
“But I believe the most important factor here is not Harris. It's who she chooses as her running mate, because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, are often seen as “spinsters” who could take votes away from Harris or Trump.
“Kennedy’s numbers are considered quite high for an independent candidate, and his voters could make a difference in the election season by taking away their votes if Trump or Harris were to receive the official nomination,” Avtar said.
Any of the people currently being touted as Biden's successor could become vice presidential candidates, including billionaire J.B. Pritzker, who has presidential ambitions.
Amal Mudalali, a former UN ambassador and CEO of Bridges International Group, believes Harris has a “perception problem.”
“There is a perception that she has not been a strong vice president, that she cannot be a strong candidate and that she will not be able to beat Trump,” she told Arab News.
While Democrats appear to be moving quickly to back Harris, Mudalali remains cautious despite former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announcing her support on Monday.
“Everything is uncertain because there are still very strong Democrats who are pushing for an open contest and trying to create an open field for everyone to compete and see if the Democratic Party can pick the strongest candidate to beat Trump,” she said.
She also added that the influence of independent candidates on the election could not be ignored.
“In a very close election, an independent candidate can do a lot of damage because this election is very close. We are talking about thousands or even thousands of votes. That can make or break a campaign,” Mudalali said.
“Let's say Kennedy could have gotten a lot of votes from the Democrats. That would have been a bigger blow to the Democrats, and that would have been a big problem for the Democrats.
“But we don't know who the Democratic nominee will be. If that individual is a very strong candidate, the party will be able to unite anti-Trump voters, and they will vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate. In that case, independents will not make a difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is a “virtually certain” candidate to replace Biden, and has suggested Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate in the first “all-female” nomination.
He told Arab News: “The speculation has largely focused on who her vice presidential running mate will be, and if she picks Whitmer, there's a chance that it will be an all-female field. That's unprecedented and carries risks, but Whitmer could carry a key swing state in Michigan, and an all-female team could energize a Democratic base that is currently deeply demoralized.”
He added: “Harris has never been very popular with the American people. But at this point, the decision by the Democratic Party and President Biden to put her in front is largely based on money and finances. She is the only one who deserves all of the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been raised so far. So choosing a running mate will also be important to reviving the Democratic base and boosting the overall popularity of the Democratic candidate.”
Maxad believes the speculation that Biden will drop out of the race and Whitmer will win the nomination could have implications for Michigan’s powerful Arab and Muslim voters, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the Feb. 27 Democratic primary.
“Arab Americans are not a monolith,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities across four major states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“There are 100,000 people in Michigan who have very strong feelings about the war in Gaza and about President Biden not doing enough to stop it. If Biden steps down, it gives Democrats a chance to once again have influence among Arab Americans in Michigan. And if the vice president (of choice) actually becomes governor of Michigan, it gives Democrats a greater opportunity to once again have influence and win in Michigan, a key battleground state.”
